Stablecoin Field Guide v0.8 — Market Overview Updates
Extraction scope: Moody's [MCO1, MCO2, MCO3], Artemis [ART], Chainalysis [CHAIN], PitchBook [PB], Deutsche Bank [DB], Zero Hash [ZH] Data as of: Primarily Q3–Q4 2025; reports dated Oct 2025 – May 2026
1. Stablecoin Supply Metrics
Total Market Size
- Total stablecoin market capitalization exceeds $300 billion by early 2026 — [MCO1] [ZH]
- USD-backed supply as of ~Apr 2026: $278.4B; EUR-backed: €444M; SGD-backed: S$16M; GBP-backed: £0.06M — [DB]
- As of Oct 1, 2025: $289.8B total supply (YoY +66.1%) — [PB]
Growth Trajectory
- 60-fold expansion from end-2019 baseline to >$300B by early 2026 — [MCO1]
- Started at approximately $50B in 2021 — [DB]
- Average annual growth >50% in 2025 — [MCO1]
- YoY growth: +66.1% as of Oct 1, 2025 — [PB]
Currency Concentration
- ~99% USD-pegged across all fiat-backed stablecoins — [MCO1] [DB] [ART]
- USDT + USDC together account for >80% of all fiat-backed stablecoin supply — [MCO1]
- USDT commands ~85% market share by transaction volume in the payments sample studied — [ART]
- Circle (USDC) + Tether (USDT) together represent >85% by volume in payments — [PB] [ART]
Reserve Asset Significance
- Total stablecoin supply ≈ ~1% of US Treasury securities outstanding (~$30T total) — [MCO1]
- Total stablecoin supply ≈ ~5% of US T-bills (~$6.5T total outstanding T-bills) — [MCO1]
- Tether's US Treasury holdings are now comparable in scale to those of Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea — [DB]
2. Transaction Volume Metrics
Gross and Adjusted Annual Volume (2025)
| Measure | Volume | Source | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|
| BCG gross on-chain (2025) | $62T | [DB] | Total, includes bots and internal txns |
| a16z total (end-2025) | $46T | [ZH] | Cited Oct 22, 2025 |
| Bloomberg on-chain (2025) | $33T | [ZH] | Cited Jan 8, 2026 |
| Chainalysis adjusted (2025) | $28T | [CHAIN] | Removes bots, wash trading |
| BCG adjusted (2025) | $4.2T | [DB] | Further removes intermediary/self txns |
| Real-economy payments (2025) | $300–550B | [DB] [MCO2] | Artemis: $350–550B; BCG: $300–550B |
- BCG decomposition of $62T: $50T bots/internal → $7.5T intermediary transactions → $4.2T adjusted → $300–550B real-economy payments — [DB]
- Real-economy payments grew approximately 60% year-on-year in 2025, with strongest growth in B2B transactions — [DB]
Point-in-Time Volume Data
- $7.2T adjusted YTD as of Oct 1, 2025 — [PB]
- $1.0T adjusted volume in September 2025 alone (+158.8% YoY) — [PB]
- Chainalysis: 133% CAGR in adjusted stablecoin volume since 2023 — [CHAIN]
Payments-Specific Volume (Artemis Survey, Jan 2023–Aug 2025)
- $136B cumulative stablecoin payments volume specifically attributed to goods/services payments — [ART]
- $122B annualized payments run rate as of Aug 2025 — [ART]
- Payments breakdown by type (annualized, Aug 2025):
- B2B payments: $76B
- P2P transfers: $19B
- Card-linked: $18B
- Prefunding: $3.6B
- B2C payouts: $3.3B
- BIS estimate: ~$400B/yr in cross-border USDC+USDT flows — [ART]
Use Case Breakdown (Moody's)
- 88% of stablecoin use: crypto trading/exchange facilitation — [MCO1]
- 5%: payments for goods/services — [MCO1]
- 4%: transfers to/from crypto — [MCO1]
- 3%: tokenized asset settlement — [MCO1]
Blockchain Preferences (Artemis Payments Sample)
- Most popular by transaction volume: Tron, then Ethereum, BSC (BNB Chain), Polygon — [ART]
Comparison to Traditional Networks
- Visa 2024 payments volume: $13.2T; stablecoin adjusted YTD volume >half of Visa by Oct 1, 2025 — [PB]
- By 2024, stablecoin TPV had exceeded several major card networks on a notional basis — [ZH]
- Stablecoins are involved as one leg of >80% of all on-chain crypto transactions — [MCO1]
3. Five Token Types
A. Fiat-Backed Stablecoins (Dominant Form)
What they are: Digital tokens pegged 1:1 to a fiat currency (primarily USD), backed by cash and short-dated Treasuries held by an off-chain issuer.
Current scale: >$300B total supply; 99% USD-pegged; USDT + USDC >80% market share — [MCO1] [DB]
Regulatory status: - US: GENIUS Act (signed July 2025) — permits regulated issuers (bank subsidiaries, OCC-approved nonbanks, qualified state entities); mandates 1:1 high-quality liquid asset reserves; prohibits paying interest to holders; governs as payment infrastructure — [MCO3] [ZH] [DB] - EU: MiCA (fully applicable Dec 2024) — permits USD stablecoins; imposes €200M daily cap on non-euro "significant" stablecoins; encourages euro-denominated alternatives — [MCO1] [DB] - Key limitation: Cannot pay yield to holders under GENIUS Act framework — [MCO3]
Key issuers: Tether (USDT), Circle (USDC), PayPal (PYUSD), AllUnity (EURAU—first BaFin-licensed euro stablecoin) — [DB] [PB]
B. Tokenized Deposits
What they are: On-chain representations of commercial bank deposit liabilities; issued on private/permissioned (or, experimentally, public) blockchain networks by regulated commercial banks.
Structure (per ZeroHash taxonomy): | Dimension | Stablecoins | Tokenized Deposits | |---|---|---| | Issuer | Permitted Payment Stablecoin Issuers (GENIUS Act) | Regulated commercial banks | | Legal claim | Liability of issuer ("dollar-equivalent") | Actual deposit claim on a bank | | Backing | Fully reserved 1:1, high-quality liquid assets | Fractional reserve (part of bank balance sheet) | | Regulatory framework | GENIUS Act / MiCA | Existing banking law (OCC, Fed) | | Deposit insurance | No FDIC insurance | Yes, insured to statutory limits | | Interest/yield | Prohibited under current US law | Permitted | | Network type | Public/permissionless (Ethereum, Solana) — "Open Loop" | Private/permissioned (Canton, Quorum) — "Closed Loop" | | Interoperability | High — moves globally across wallets and DeFi | Low — limited to issuing bank's ecosystem or multi-bank ledger | | Primary use cases | 24/7 retail payments, remittances, DeFi, cross-exchange settlement | Institutional B2B settlement, internal treasury, intra-bank liquidity |
Key infrastructure platforms: - Partior — live for real-time cross-border settlement of tokenized deposits — [DB] - Project Agorá (BIS/IIF, 7 central banks, 40+ institutions) — designing unified ledger for tokenized deposits + wholesale CBDC — [DB] - Swift Ledger — DLT-based shared ledger announced Sept 2025; moved to MVP implementation on Hyperledger Besu in March 2026; builds on 11,000+ institution network — [DB] [PB]. v1.0 update: ready for initial use July 9, 2026, with 17 banks set to pilot tokenized-deposit cross-border payments (Swift); first live cross-border tokenized deposit transaction August 19, 2026, by Standard Chartered and HSBC (Standard Chartered). Still a pilot. - JPMorgan Kinexys / JPMD — institutional-grade deposit token issued on Base blockchain; processed >$1.5T in cumulative volume — [PB] - Goldman Sachs + BNY Mellon — tokenized MMF shares (mirror tokenization model), launched July 2025 — [PB]
Key dynamic: Moody's and ZeroHash both project that banks will rapidly move to tokenize deposits as a competitive defense against stablecoin disintermediation; network effects mean first movers force industry-wide adoption — [MCO3] [ZH]
C. Tokenized Money Market Funds / Short-Term Securities
What they are: On-chain share classes of traditional money market funds or Treasury funds, providing yield-bearing cash equivalents with on-chain transferability and faster settlement.
Current scale: Approximately $10 billion outstanding (Moody's estimate, May 2026), growing quickly — [MCO2]
Key products: - BlackRock $BUIDL (USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund) — tokenized Treasury fund; a private fund, not a registered money market fund — [ANA]. Circle partnership allows BUIDL-to-USDC conversion — [DB] [CHAIN]. At Sep 30, 2026, $2.24B, behind Circle USYC ($2.40B) and Ondo USDY ($2.28B) — [CDS] - Circle $USYC — tokenized short-duration US Treasury fund — [CHAIN] - Franklin Templeton BENJI — tokenized liquidity fund — [MCO3] [PB]
Strategic significance: Tokenized MMFs are the principal yield-bearing settlement instrument in Moody's base case scenario; stablecoins provide transfer/settlement utility while tokenized MMFs provide yield + mobility expected by institutional treasurers — [MCO3]
US MMF sector context: The US money market fund sector totals approximately $8 trillion; industry expects a large share will tokenize as asset managers move to offer 24/7 liquidity and operational efficiencies — [MCO2]
D. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)
What they are: Digital forms of central bank money; retail CBDCs for public use; wholesale CBDCs for interbank settlement.
Retail CBDCs
US: House passed Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (July 2025); executive order prohibits Fed from issuing retail CBDC; US explicitly favors regulated stablecoins — [DB]
EU (Digital Euro): ECB completed preparatory phase Oct 2025; entered second preparation phase; pilot testing conditional on legislation, targeted H2 2027; potential launch ~2029; key design: legal tender, merchant acceptance required, holding limits for retail users, "waterfall" mechanism routes merchant receipts to bank accounts — [DB]
China (e-CNY): Most advanced large-scale retail CBDC; cumulative transaction volumes in pilot cities reached RMB 14 trillion (~$2T) by Sept 2025; widespread adoption has not materialized due to entrenched Alipay/WeChat Pay — [DB]
UK: As of Apr 2026, final decision not yet reached; BoE and HM Treasury continuing design phase — [DB]
Wholesale CBDCs
Direction: Moving from concept to implementation; central banks extending existing RTGS central bank money onto programmable DLT infrastructure — [DB]
Key initiatives: - Project Agorá (BIS, 7 central banks, 40+ banks) — shared ledger for tokenized deposits + wholesale CBDC — [DB] - Eurosystem Pontes — connects DLT platforms to TARGET Services — [DB]. v1.0 update: launched September 21, 2026; full implementation expected by 2028 (ECB) - Eurosystem Appia — longer-term integrated DLT framework; roadmap paper Q2 2026 — [DB] - Hong Kong / Singapore — active wholesale CBDC and cross-border DLT settlement trials — [DB] - Fnality — UK-regulated DLT payment system backed by central bank money; operational, expanding to USD and EUR — [DB]
E. Algorithmic / Crypto-Backed Stablecoins
What they are: Stablecoins that maintain their peg through algorithmic mechanisms or crypto collateral rather than fiat reserves.
Status: Effectively marginal/discontinued as a category following the TerraUSD collapse.
Key event: May 2022 — TerraUSD (UST) collapse — algorithmic stablecoin collapsed entirely after failing to maintain its peg; held no underlying reserve assets; the implosion affected the wider digital finance market and accelerated regulatory urgency globally — [MCO1]
4. Tokenized Real-World Asset (RWA) Market
Market Size
- Total tokenized RWA market approaching ~$30B AUM in early 2026 — [CHAIN]
- Tokenized MMFs: approximately $10B outstanding (Moody's, May 2026) — [MCO2]
- Tokenized gold volumes tracked: $40.5B (Chainalysis dataset; includes all gold-tracking instruments) — [CHAIN]
Asset Class Leadership
- US Treasury debt = largest single liquid RWA asset class on-chain — [CHAIN]
- Tokenized commodities = largest consumer/end-user class of tokenized assets — [CHAIN]
- Asset-backed credit = fastest-growing structured credit segment — [CHAIN]
Time-to-$1B Adoption by Asset Class (Chainalysis)
| Asset Class | Time to $1B |
|---|---|
| Asset-backed credit | 6.1 months (fastest) |
| Specialty finance | 21.5 months |
| Non-US government debt | 873 days (~28.8 months) |
| US Treasury debt | 918 days (~30.6 months) |
| Commodities | 36.2 months (~1,101 days) |
| Real estate | 1,071 days (~35.7 months) |
| Private equity | 1,266 days (~42.2 months) |
| Corporate credit | 1,478 days (~49.3 months) |
— [CHAIN]
Activity Patterns
- 2022–late 2024: New RWA holding addresses on Ethereum flat — [CHAIN]
- H2 2025 onward: Explosive acceleration in RWA wallet activity following GENIUS Act and regulatory clarity — [CHAIN]
- Chainalysis tracked approximately 400,000 distinct RWA holding addresses — [CHAIN]
- Institutional capital outpacing retail in RWA markets — [CHAIN]
- Q2 2025: Tokenized gold RWA volumes began showing strong correlation (>0.70) with traditional gold (GLD ETF) — [CHAIN]
Key Milestones
- Apr 2024: BlackRock-Circle BUIDL/USDC partnership — first major stablecoin integration with a tokenized Treasury fund — [DB]
- 2025: "Great Collateral Experiment" — industry pilot demonstrated near-instantaneous tokenized Treasury collateral movement for repo margin calls — [MCO2]
- Late 2025: DTCC receives SEC no-action relief to pilot tokenizing DTC-held equities and ETFs — [MCO2]
- May 4, 2026: DTCC announces first limited production trades of tokenized securities targeted for July 2026; full service October 2026 — [MCO2]
- Jul 15, 2026: DTCC completes its first live production trades using DTC-tokenized assets, with more than 30 firms on Besu and Canton; DTCC Tokenization Service launch planned for October 2026 (DTCC)
Base Case Scenario (Moody's)
Moody's "steady growth" base case: tokenization scales first in repurchase agreement collateral, MMFs, Treasuries, equities/ETFs, and segments of fixed income; incumbents (banks, asset managers, infrastructure providers) retain central roles; bank-linked money remains central settlement instrument — [MCO3]
5. Geographic Distribution
US vs. Non-US
- Approximately two-thirds of stablecoin balances held outside the United States — [MCO1]
- Bulk of non-US holdings concentrated in emerging markets — [MCO1]
- Consumer stablecoin use estimated at approximately 0.2% of global e-commerce — [MCO1]
- ZeroHash footprint: expanded from 70 countries (end-2024) to 106 countries (2025); non-US customers grew >4x YoY — [ZH]
- Over 1.4 billion individual accounts globally became "stablecoin-ready" during 2024–2025 — [ZH]
Key Emerging Market Corridors
- Argentina: ~$34B in stablecoin transactions in 2024; ~2/3 cross-border; stablecoins widely used as inflation hedge and USD access mechanism — [MCO1]
- Nigeria: USDC volumes exceed $3B/month in 2025 — [MCO1]
- LATAM broadly: Primary use case is B2B cross-border payments in USD-constrained corridors; adoption ramping in Mexico, Colombia, Brazil — [PB] [MCO1]
- Philippines (GCash): 94M users added stablecoin support, Mar 2025 — [ZH]
Regulatory Approaches by Region (Moody's Taxonomy)
| Region | Approach | Key Features |
|---|---|---|
| United States | Federal framework (GENIUS Act) | Permitted issuers, 1:1 reserves, no interest, anti-CBDC |
| European Union | Hybrid model | Permits USD stablecoins; €200M daily cap on non-euro "significant" tokens; MiCA licensing |
| United Kingdom | Cautious evolution | Stablecoin framework via PSR/FCA; retail CBDC undecided as of Apr 2026 |
| Japan | Early mover | 2022 nationwide stablecoin law; Payment Services Act amendments |
| Singapore | Regulated integration | MAS Payment Services Act covers SGD + G10 stablecoins; Project Guardian |
| UAE | Regulated integration | Stablecoin licensing framework |
| Hong Kong | Active licensing | Stablecoins Ordinance effective Aug 1, 2025; HKMA authorized two issuers Apr 2026 |
| China | Restriction / CBDC promotion | Bans private stablecoins; promotes e-CNY (digital yuan) |
| India | Discouragement | Restricts private stablecoins; promoting CBDC |
| Brazil / Mexico | Pragmatic cooption | Regulate and embed in domestic payment rails |
| Thailand | Sandbox approach | USDC/USDT approved by SEC Mar 2025; TouristDigiPay sandbox |
— [MCO1] [DB] [ZH]
6. Growth Projections
Supply Projections
| Source | Projection | Date Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasury TBAC | $2 trillion supply | By 2028 | TBAC Digital Money report — [ART] |
| Treasury Sec. Bessent | $2 trillion supply | Projected | Public remarks, July 2025 — [DB] |
| Citi "Stablecoins 2030" | $1.9 trillion issuance | By 2030 | Bull case $4.0T; revised up from Citi's April 2025 estimates of $1.6T base and $3.7T bull — [CI30] |
Volume / Transaction Projections (Chainalysis, 2026)
| Scenario | Projected Volume | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline (no catalysts) | $719 trillion adjusted | 2035 |
| Wealth transfer catalyst only | +$508T above baseline | 2035 |
| POS saturation catalyst only | +$232T above baseline | 2035 |
| Combined (wealth transfer + POS saturation) | ~$1.5 quadrillion | 2035 |
| Merrill Lynch wealth transfer context | up to $100 trillion from Boomer cohort | By 2048 |
— [CHAIN]
Merchant Transaction Scale Projections (Chainalysis)
| Scenario | Year on-chain merchant txns reach Visa-scale |
|---|---|
| Bull case | 2031 |
| Base case | 2033 |
| Bear case | 2039 |
— [CHAIN]
Institutional Scenario Analysis (Moody's, May 2026)
Base case — "Steady growth": Tokenization scales in select financial products (repos, MMFs, Treasuries, equities/ETFs, fixed income segments); stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and tokenized MMFs all emerge as contenders for principal on-chain settlement; incumbents retain central roles; bank-linked money remains dominant monetary layer — [MCO3]
Low growth scenario: Tokenization and digital money remain confined to niche use cases; stablecoins largely limited to crypto trading or closed-loop arrangements; limited impact on incumbent financial institutions — [MCO3]
Rapid growth scenario (not Moody's base case): Greater displacement of traditional intermediaries; larger banks and G-SIBs face competitive pressure despite advantages; payment processors face downside risks if technology outpaces business model evolution — [MCO3]
Key Catalysts Identified Across Sources
- GENIUS Act enforcement (2027 onward) — standardizes US stablecoin infrastructure, enables institutional adoption at scale — [CHAIN] [DB] [MCO3]
- Tokenized deposit network effects — once first movers tokenize deposits, competitive pressure forces industry-wide adoption — [ZH] [MCO3]
- Tokenized MMF scaling — potential for large share of $8T US MMF sector to tokenize, bringing trillions on-chain and forcing surrounding infrastructure to catch up — [MCO2]
- Wealth transfer — Merrill Lynch estimates up to $100T transferring from Baby Boomers to digital-native generations by 2048 — [CHAIN]
- POS saturation — stablecoin-linked cards achieving merchant acceptance at scale — [CHAIN] [PB]
- Stablecoins as invisible infrastructure — embedding in brokerages, payment platforms, payroll systems (e.g., Gusto/ZeroHash AUTH demo) — [ZH]
- Geographic expansion — stablecoin adoption in 106+ countries; demand driven by USD access, inflation hedging, cross-border payments in underserved corridors — [ZH] [MCO1] [PB]
Source key: [ART] = Artemis/Castle Island/Dragonfly "Stablecoin Payments from the Ground Up" (Oct 2025) | [CHAIN] = Chainalysis "The New Rails" (2026) | [PB] = PitchBook "Stablecoins Are Imperfect but Inevitable" (Oct 17, 2025) | [ZH] = Zero Hash "2026 Stablecoin Momentum Report" (Jan 2026) | [DB] = Deutsche Bank "Digital Money – Perspectives on Stablecoins, Tokenised Deposits, and CBDCs" (May 2026) | [MCO1] = Moody's "Growing stablecoin use highlights policy, liquidity and price vulnerabilities" (May 13, 2026) | [MCO2] = Moody's "US financial markets envision an inevitable shift to tokenized assets and digital money" (May 12, 2026) | [MCO3] = Moody's "Tokenization will change US transaction flows; less likely to remove intermediaries" (May 11, 2026) | v1.0 additions: [CDS] = CoinDesk Data "Stablecoins & Tokenized Assets Report" (September 2026; data as of Sep 30, 2026) | [CI30] = Citi Institute GPS "Stablecoins 2030: Web3 to Wall Street" (Sep 2025) | [ANA] = Anadu, McCabe, Perez-Sangimino and Swem, "A Framework for Understanding the Vulnerabilities of New Money-Like Products," Journal of Financial Crises 8:3 (2026)
Page History
5 reader-facing changes since 2026-05-29; last change 2026-10-13 (v1.0).
Show all changes
| Date | Release | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | v1.0 | merge duplicate BVNK entries (6 and 11), correct BVNK survey details and Mastercard deal dates; standardize Chainalysis code to [CHAIN] |
| 2026-10-12 | v1.0 | v1.0 evidence corrections — Swift ledger, DTCC production trades, Pontes launch, BUIDL wording, x402 data, Citi $1.9T credited to [CI30], Tether supply, Schnabel quote; add July–September 2026 history |
| 2026-07-10 | v0.8 refresh | Updated main page data |
| 2026-07-01 | v0.8 | v0.8: Batch 4 content integration — 57-company directory, regulatory, history, use cases, digest, research sources |
| 2026-05-29 | v0.7 | v0.6: initial commit - 1st MkDocs build, all docs as of 05-14-2026 |
Infrastructure and formatting commits are omitted. Release-level detail is in the Release Notes.